So I hear today that Belinda Stronach has moved from the blues to the reds just 2 days before a house of commons vote on the budget that could take down the government if it does not pass. Currently the Liberal/NDP alliance has 152 votes (including Stronach's), and the Bloc/Conservative alliance has 152 votes (obviously excluding Stronach's). So assuming everyone votes along party lines, everything falls to the 3 independents:
Chuck Cadman - former Reformer, Alliance, and Conservative party member.
Carolyn Parrish - 10 plus year liberal before leaving the party over the sponsorship scandal (if memory serves me).
David Kilgour - 14 plus year liberal before leaving the party around the same time Parrish did.
One would think that even if the former Conservative (Cadman) were to vote with the government, that at least one of Parrish/Kilgour is still holding a grudge with the Liberals and will vote against them. If at least two of those three vote against the budget then it's election time. Although I wonder if there will be any more crossing of the floor between now and Thursday, this stuff seems to happen in streaks. It'll make for an interesting vote.
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Actually, I heard 151 For the Conservative/Bloc, Belinda was included. There's 3 independents, one of whom (Parrish; remember that whole 22 Minutes/"I hate those bastards" deal a while back?) says she'll support the Liberals, even though the party kicked her out. Under the assumption that no one votes outside the party line, the only way the Conservatives are getting their no-confidence vote is if the other 2 vote in favour of it. And with this walk across the floor (Already parodied as Episode III: Revenge of the Bitch) today, I wouldn't be surprised if one or 2 of the more moderaqte PC's vote against No-Confidence.
The entire No-Confidence vote is just meant to influence public opinion of the Liberal Party anyways. Martin promised another election by January, with many "experts" suggesting we'll have one before summer is done anyways.
Addendum: Remind me to actually finish reading your post before I throw in my own thoughts.
Just heard on the news that the Liberals only need the vote of either Kilgour or Cadman to get the majority since they are the independents that haven't declared their intentions yet, which goes along with what you are saying that Parrish will vote with the government.
I couldn't remember why Parrish wasn't in the party anymore, so I appreciate the reminder. I think the 151 for the conservatives/bloc is because there is a conservative in the hospital that won't be able to vote, so the liberals have also instructed one of their own to not vote to make it so they aren't taking advantage of someone undergoing cancer treatment.
152 Liberal/NDP
152 Conservative/Bloc
3 Independents
-----
307 seats total
I don't see why the conservatives really need to force a vote now, they go on summer break in a few weeks and the gomery comission will be done by the end of the year I believe. Let's get the truth before we vote, shall we (he says as an admitted NDP supporter).
This scandal is exactly why most Canadians have absolutely no faith or interest in our government. Our government is becoming a laughing stock for the international community.
We pay our government to "work" (I use that word lightly, though I'm sure there are a lot of hard working individuals who think this whole thing is bullshit), not to close up shop because they can't decide whether or not to hold a vote.
Just keep the elections at their scheduled times. Makes things easier, smoother. That's my 2 cents.
I mean, was the start of this thing surprise? A crooked politician? If people looked at the big picture, they'd realize there are crooked people in every profession. Politicians, lawyers and such just get a bad wrap because of the nature of their work. It is quite possible the people pushing this election are doing it for their own scandallous agenda, not for the good of the people they are paid to serve.
Here's the deal...
152 Liberals + NDP, however 151 votes as Speaker can't vote unless there's a tie.
152 BQ/Conservatives
3 Indies (Cadman, Kilgour, Parrish, who will vote Lib)
That makes 152 to 152.
Cadman = Ex Cons.
Kilgour = Ex Lib who left due to scandal.
If one of Cadman or Kilgour vote with the party, that'll make 153/153. Tie. Speaker votes, and since he's a Lib, Libs carry it.
The scenarios of a Liberal loss:
Cadman + Kilgour both vote Cons.
Kilgour votes Cons. and Cadman doesn't show up (this is actually rumoured to be a possibility).
Do the Cons. want an election because the Libs are crooked? Hell no. This all transpired when the Cons. had their numbers high on the poll.
And as for non-confidence votes, they're a great tool. If a government doesn't have the majority in caucus, or even if they do, if the majority of caucus think they're doing a questionable job they can boot them out early. Not just the prime minister, but the whole group. Could you imagine how much more accountable someone like Bush would be if he knew public sentiment could switch during his reign of terror and he could be booted out? It's all about checks and balances.
Part of governance of any country is scandal. It always has been and it always will be. People are greedy. They'll lie, they'll cheat, they'll steal, and they'll smile at you with a shit eating grin while doing it. Do we all forget the scandal a few years back with Jane whatshername who had Carolyn Parrish's new portfolio and bought fountains or whatever it was she did? Memories fade, bet you all forgot about the outrage over that one.
My real question becomes whether or not if Martin wins he calls an election in January. I mean, is he going to characterize a failed non confidence vote as a "clear mandate to govern?"...
Thanks for clearing that up Sara, I was close, forgot that the speaker didn't vote unless there's a tie.
If the budget passes I think he still has to call an election after the Gomery report is in, the Conservatives won't forget about that. I actually think that right now if the government falls, the Liberals would be elected with another minority. I just don't think most people are ready for an election yet, I know I'm not.
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